Data Exploration

We’ll look at how much the scoring systems for FanDuel and DraftKings differ from our projections scrape.

It seems that WRs certainly get a point boost from being on DraftKings, which makes sense as DraftKings is full PPR and includes 100+ yard game bonuses. The difference gets slimmer when we look at RB (specifically in the higher tiers) and even more so when looking at QBs.

As we can see, there is some variation near the top, but overall the data is relatively clustered with no large outliers. We see a wide variation in QBs, WRs, and RBs which is to be expected- since there are so many rostered at each position. Now, let’s look at FanDuel and DraftKings separately to see if there are any plays that we can exploit.

In FanDuel cash games, 130 points is an arbitrary number that seems to win you 90% of the time. Thus, any point above this line are our “value” plays. They are projected to get over 2.2x value. However, studs are still studs. This line should help decided what lower tiered players to play, or maybe if there’s a debate between two solid plays. As we get to lower salaries, however, there are less “value” plays. And this makes sense. DFS is about finding these low-priced values in order to be able to rightfully pay up for studs. Additionally, very rarely will we see any DST above this “value” threshold. This is why paying up for defenses doesn’t make sense in the majority of scenarios; rather we should look for defenses that will provide us with the most points per dollar. Again, this frees up money to pay for our more expensive players.

As per DKNation, we should target 125 points, putting us generally in the top 45% needed to win cash games. With DraftKings, we see a modest increase in the amount of value plays, as we see DST closer to our value threshold, as well as more middle-tiered players. Again, we’ll make sure to pay up for studs, but we can see what value plays are out there.

Stacks

We can see how player are projected to do, but that doesn’t help us outright with DFS. Often times, we want to create stacks, where we combine a team’s QB and receiving options (WRs and TEs), so we can correlate our scores. We’ll look at stacking the top receiver and their QB, along with the top two and three with their pass-thrower.

FanDuel

Stack 1

We’ll first look at a QB and top receiver stack:
Total Salary Value Team qb_name qb_pts qb_sal receiver_name receiver_pts receiver_sal
38.60450 15800 2.443 BUF Josh Allen 23.17350 8200 Stefon Diggs 15.431000 7600
36.89097 15400 2.396 LAC Justin Herbert 21.81810 7900 Keenan Allen 15.072869 7500
38.69575 16400 2.359 SEA Russell Wilson 24.09325 9000 Tyler Lockett 14.602500 7400
35.96727 15400 2.336 HOU Deshaun Watson 23.34300 8300 Will Fuller 12.624268 7100
39.57509 17400 2.274 ARI Kyler Murray 23.18100 8600 DeAndre Hopkins 16.394094 8800
29.71593 13400 2.218 LV Derek Carr 18.05450 7000 Darren Waller 11.661433 6400
38.49072 17600 2.187 KC Patrick Mahomes 23.72900 9300 Tyreek Hill 14.761722 8300
34.56225 15800 ATL Matt Ryan 19.00400 7600 Julio Jones 15.558251 8200
31.82840 15000 2.122 TEN Ryan Tannehill 18.84840 7400 A.J. Brown 12.980000 7600
30.98181 14700 2.108 BAL Lamar Jackson 20.81730 8100 Mark Andrews 10.164511 6600
29.16449 13900 2.098 CAR Teddy Bridgewater 16.87200 7300 Robby Anderson 12.292491 6600
26.33005 12800 2.057 NYG Daniel Jones 15.53505 6900 Darius Slayton 10.795000 5900
30.40010 14800 2.054 MIN Kirk Cousins 16.62435 7100 Adam Thielen 13.775750 7700
29.02790 14200 2.044 PIT Ben Roethlisberger 18.29090 7700 JuJu Smith-Schuster 10.737000 6500
25.75505 12900 1.997 DEN Drew Lock 16.00630 7200 Jerry Jeudy 9.748750 5700
27.76957 14000 1.984 WAS Kyle Allen 14.32730 6800 Terry McLaurin 13.442272 7200
25.17800 13000 1.937 MIA Tua Tagovailoa 14.68200 6700 DeVante Parker 10.496000 6300
22.23225 11900 1.868 CHI Nick Foles 14.77725 6800 Anthony Miller 7.455000 5100
21.55425 11700 1.842 JAX Jake Luton 14.28200 6500 Keelan Cole 7.272250 5200
16.98883 12000 1.416 DET Chase Daniel 7.21700 6000 T.J. Hockenson 9.771832 6000
17.55200 13600 1.291 DAL Ben DiNucci 7.22900 6600 Amari Cooper 10.323000 7000
9.38500 11500 0.816 IND Jacoby Brissett 1.56300 6000 Trey Burton 7.822000 5500

Stack 2

Total Salary Value Team qb_name qb_pts qb_sal receiver_name receiver_pts receiver_sal
71.40850 29300 2.437 BUF Josh Allen 23.17350 8200 Stefon Diggs 15.431000 7600
Cole Beasley 9.630500 5300
70.08977 29800 2.352 HOU Deshaun Watson 23.34300 8300 Will Fuller 12.624268 7100
Brandin Cooks 10.779500 6100
69.28857 29500 2.349 LAC Justin Herbert 21.81810 7900 Keenan Allen 15.072869 7500
Mike Williams 10.579500 6200
77.01568 33500 2.299 SEA Russell Wilson 24.09325 9000 Tyler Lockett 14.602500 7400
DK Metcalf 14.226684 8100
73.09159 31900 2.291 ARI Kyler Murray 23.18100 8600 DeAndre Hopkins 16.394094 8800
Christian Kirk 10.335500 5900
56.30293 25400 2.217 LV Derek Carr 18.05450 7000 Darren Waller 11.661433 6400
Nelson Agholor 8.532500 5000
75.95347 34900 2.176 KC Patrick Mahomes 23.72900 9300 Tyreek Hill 14.761722 8300
Travis Kelce 13.733750 8000
61.90011 28600 2.164 BAL Lamar Jackson 20.81730 8100 Mark Andrews 10.164511 6600
Marquise Brown 10.101000 5800
60.52605 28400 2.131 TEN Ryan Tannehill 18.84840 7400 A.J. Brown 12.980000 7600
Corey Davis 9.849250 6000
59.50620 28700 2.073 MIN Kirk Cousins 16.62435 7100 Adam Thielen 13.775750 7700
Justin Jefferson 12.481750 6800
64.07675 31400 2.041 ATL Matt Ryan 19.00400 7600 Julio Jones 15.558251 8200
Calvin Ridley 10.510500 8000
57.29780 28200 2.032 PIT Ben Roethlisberger 18.29090 7700 JuJu Smith-Schuster 10.737000 6500
Chase Claypool 9.979000 6300
53.67049 26800 2.003 CAR Teddy Bridgewater 16.87200 7300 Robby Anderson 12.292491 6600
Curtis Samuel 7.634000 5600
50.16360 25200 1.991 NYG Daniel Jones 15.53505 6900 Darius Slayton 10.795000 5900
Evan Engram 8.298502 5500
50.78284 25900 1.961 DEN Drew Lock 16.00630 7200 Jerry Jeudy 9.748750 5700
Noah Fant 9.021488 5800
47.30000 24800 1.907 MIA Tua Tagovailoa 14.68200 6700 DeVante Parker 10.496000 6300
Preston Williams 7.440000 5100
49.05487 25800 1.901 WAS Kyle Allen 14.32730 6800 Terry McLaurin 13.442272 7200
Logan Thomas 6.958000 5000
40.78325 22800 1.789 JAX Jake Luton 14.28200 6500 Keelan Cole 7.272250 5200
Chris Conley 4.947000 4600
43.00950 24200 1.777 CHI Nick Foles 14.77725 6800 Anthony Miller 7.455000 5100
Darnell Mooney 6.000000 5500
32.32758 23300 1.387 DET Chase Daniel 7.21700 6000 T.J. Hockenson 9.771832 6000
Danny Amendola 8.121750 5300
33.28125 26000 1.280 DAL Ben DiNucci 7.22900 6600 Amari Cooper 10.323000 7000
CeeDee Lamb 8.500250 5800
18.19550 22800 0.798 IND Jacoby Brissett 1.56300 6000 Trey Burton 7.822000 5500
T.Y. Hilton 7.247500 5300

Stack 3

Total Salary Value Team qb_name qb_pts qb_sal receiver_name receiver_pts receiver_sal
102.87200 43000 2.392 BUF Josh Allen 23.17350 8200 Stefon Diggs 15.431000 7600
Cole Beasley 9.630500 5300
John Brown 8.290000 5500
101.12352 43500 2.325 HOU Deshaun Watson 23.34300 8300 Will Fuller 12.624268 7100
Brandin Cooks 10.779500 6100
Randall Cobb 7.690750 5400
99.88896 43000 2.323 LAC Justin Herbert 21.81810 7900 Keenan Allen 15.072869 7500
Mike Williams 10.579500 6200
Hunter Henry 8.782292 5600
102.36609 45500 2.250 ARI Kyler Murray 23.18100 8600 DeAndre Hopkins 16.394094 8800
Christian Kirk 10.335500 5900
Larry Fitzgerald 6.093500 5000
107.08643 47700 2.245 SEA Russell Wilson 24.09325 9000 Tyler Lockett 14.602500 7400
DK Metcalf 14.226684 8100
David Moore 5.977500 5200
82.10193 37500 2.189 LV Derek Carr 18.05450 7000 Darren Waller 11.661433 6400
Nelson Agholor 8.532500 5000
Hunter Renfrow 7.744500 5100
107.46047 49800 2.158 KC Patrick Mahomes 23.72900 9300 Tyreek Hill 14.761722 8300
Travis Kelce 13.733750 8000
Mecole Hardman 7.778000 5600
87.80130 41500 2.116 TEN Ryan Tannehill 18.84840 7400 A.J. Brown 12.980000 7600
Corey Davis 9.849250 6000
Jonnu Smith 8.426846 5700
87.24791 2.102 BAL Lamar Jackson 20.81730 8100 Mark Andrews 10.164511 6600
Marquise Brown 10.101000 5800
Miles Boykin 4.530500 4800
91.33925 44600 2.048 ATL Matt Ryan 19.00400 7600 Julio Jones 15.558251 8200
Calvin Ridley 10.510500 8000
Hayden Hurst 8.258500 5600
84.77820 41900 2.023 PIT Ben Roethlisberger 18.29090 7700 JuJu Smith-Schuster 10.737000 6500
Chase Claypool 9.979000 6300
Diontae Johnson 9.189500 6000
80.51755 40200 2.003 MIN Kirk Cousins 16.62435 7100 Adam Thielen 13.775750 7700
Justin Jefferson 12.481750 6800
Kyle Rudolph 4.387000 4400
73.33815 37600 1.950 NYG Daniel Jones 15.53505 6900 Darius Slayton 10.795000 5900
Evan Engram 8.298502 5500
Sterling Shepard 7.639500 5500
73.63339 38400 1.918 DEN Drew Lock 16.00630 7200 Jerry Jeudy 9.748750 5700
Noah Fant 9.021488 5800
Tim Patrick 6.844250 5300
74.01174 38700 1.912 CAR Teddy Bridgewater 16.87200 7300 Robby Anderson 12.292491 6600
Curtis Samuel 7.634000 5600
Ian Thomas 3.469250 4600
68.14510 36800 1.852 MIA Tua Tagovailoa 14.68200 6700 DeVante Parker 10.496000 6300
Preston Williams 7.440000 5100
Mike Gesicki 6.163102 5300
67.99767 37200 1.828 WAS Kyle Allen 14.32730 6800 Terry McLaurin 13.442272 7200
Logan Thomas 6.958000 5000
Dontrelle Inman 4.615500 4600
63.73725 36300 1.756 CHI Nick Foles 14.77725 Anthony Miller 7.455000 5100
Darnell Mooney 6.000000 5500
Jimmy Graham 5.950500 5300
58.39200 33800 1.728 JAX Jake Luton 14.28200 6500 Keelan Cole 7.272250 5200
Chris Conley 4.947000 4600
Tyler Eifert 3.326750 4500
44.55158 33900 1.314 DET Chase Daniel 7.21700 6000 T.J. Hockenson 9.771832 6000
Danny Amendola 8.121750 5300
Marvin Hall 5.007000 4600
47.52950 38000 1.251 DAL Ben DiNucci 7.22900 6600 Amari Cooper 10.323000 7000
CeeDee Lamb 8.500250 5800
Michael Gallup 7.019250 5400
26.52850 34000 0.780 IND Jacoby Brissett 1.56300 6000 Trey Burton 7.822000 5500
T.Y. Hilton 7.247500 5300
Zach Pascal 6.770000 5200

DraftKings

Stack 1

We’ll first look at a QB and top receiver stack:
Total Salary Value Team qb_name qb_pts qb_sal receiver_name receiver_pts receiver_sal
40.76659 13800 2.954 LAC Justin Herbert 21.96810 6800 Keenan Allen 18.79849 7000
42.10575 14400 2.924 BUF Josh Allen 23.42350 7000 Stefon Diggs 18.68225 7400
41.97200 2.915 SEA Russell Wilson 24.18075 7600 Tyler Lockett 17.79125 6800
33.04412 11500 2.873 LV Derek Carr 18.32950 5700 Darren Waller 14.71462 5800
28.00505 9900 2.829 DEN Drew Lock 16.13130 5200 Jerry Jeudy 11.87375 4700
38.04350 13600 2.797 ATL Matt Ryan 19.17900 6400 Julio Jones 18.86450 7200
28.94505 10400 2.783 NYG Daniel Jones 16.08505 5400 Darius Slayton 12.86000 5000
38.53804 13900 2.773 HOU Deshaun Watson 23.43300 7100 Will Fuller 15.10504 6800
43.58169 16000 2.724 ARI Kyler Murray 23.33100 7800 DeAndre Hopkins 20.25069 8200
41.04069 15200 2.700 KC Patrick Mahomes 23.81650 8100 Tyreek Hill 17.22419 7100
34.31340 12900 2.660 TEN Ryan Tannehill 19.02340 6300 A.J. Brown 15.29000 6600
23.44175 8900 2.634 JAX Jake Luton 14.63200 4900 Keelan Cole 8.80975 4000
30.94059 11800 2.622 WAS Kyle Allen 14.67730 5300 Terry McLaurin 16.26329 6500
32.15548 12300 2.614 CAR Teddy Bridgewater 16.97200 6000 Robby Anderson 15.18348 6300
33.44080 12900 2.592 BAL Lamar Jackson 21.21730 6900 Marquise Brown 12.22350 6000
33.29260 2.581 MIN Kirk Cousins 16.82435 6200 Adam Thielen 16.46825 6700
27.56925 10700 2.577 MIA Tua Tagovailoa 14.93200 5500 DeVante Parker 12.63725 5200
24.30475 9500 2.558 CHI Nick Foles 14.91725 Anthony Miller 9.38750 4000
31.55415 12700 2.485 PIT Ben Roethlisberger 18.36590 6500 JuJu Smith-Schuster 13.18825 6200
19.23416 9100 2.114 DET Chase Daniel 7.41700 4000 T.J. Hockenson 11.81716 5100
20.37700 10400 1.959 DAL Ben DiNucci 7.62900 4800 Amari Cooper 12.74800 5600
11.07250 7900 1.402 IND Jacoby Brissett 1.62300 4400 Trey Burton 9.44950 3500

Stack 2

Now, the top two receivers and their QB:

Total Salary Value Team qb_name qb_pts qb_sal receiver_name receiver_pts receiver_sal
75.01669 25700 2.919 LAC Justin Herbert 21.96810 6800 Keenan Allen 18.79849 7000
Mike Williams 12.28200 5100
77.49850 26800 2.892 BUF Josh Allen 23.42350 7000 Stefon Diggs 18.68225 7400
Cole Beasley 11.96925 5400
75.15179 26500 2.836 HOU Deshaun Watson 23.43300 7100 Will Fuller 15.10504 6800
Brandin Cooks 13.18075 5500
61.54862 21900 2.810 LV Derek Carr 18.32950 5700 Darren Waller 14.71462 5800
Nelson Agholor 10.17500 4700
55.28083 19700 2.806 DEN Drew Lock 16.13130 5200 Jerry Jeudy 11.87375 4700
Noah Fant 11.14448 4600
83.35062 29800 2.797 SEA Russell Wilson 24.18075 7600 Tyler Lockett 17.79125 6800
DK Metcalf 17.19787 7800
55.37351 20100 2.755 NYG Daniel Jones 16.08505 5400 Darius Slayton 12.86000 5000
Evan Engram 10.34341 4300
79.41194 29100 2.729 ARI Kyler Murray 23.33100 7800 DeAndre Hopkins 20.25069 8200
Christian Kirk 12.49925 5300
66.79412 24600 2.715 BAL Lamar Jackson 21.21730 6900 Marquise Brown 12.22350 6000
Mark Andrews 12.13602 4800
81.67719 30500 2.678 KC Patrick Mahomes 23.81650 8100 Tyreek Hill 17.22419 7100
Travis Kelce 16.82000 7200
44.08575 16800 2.624 JAX Jake Luton 14.63200 4900 Keelan Cole 8.80975 4000
Chris Conley 6.01200 3000
54.32589 20800 2.612 WAS Kyle Allen 14.67730 5300 Terry McLaurin 16.26329 6500
Logan Thomas 8.70800 3700
65.32605 25100 2.603 TEN Ryan Tannehill 19.02340 6300 A.J. Brown 15.29000 6600
Corey Davis 11.98925 5900
69.91050 27000 2.589 ATL Matt Ryan 19.17900 6400 Julio Jones 18.86450 7200
Calvin Ridley 12.68800 7000
65.00245 25200 2.579 MIN Kirk Cousins 16.82435 6200 Adam Thielen 16.46825 6700
Justin Jefferson 14.88550 6100
58.39148 22700 2.572 CAR Teddy Bridgewater 16.97200 6000 Robby Anderson 15.18348 6300
Curtis Samuel 9.26400 4400
51.54875 20300 2.539 MIA Tua Tagovailoa 14.93200 5500 DeVante Parker 12.63725 5200
Preston Williams 9.04750 4100
61.94905 24900 2.488 PIT Ben Roethlisberger 18.36590 6500 JuJu Smith-Schuster 13.18825 6200
Chase Claypool 12.02900 5700
46.77250 18800 CHI Nick Foles 14.91725 5500 Anthony Miller 9.38750 4000
Jimmy Graham 7.55050 3800
36.68166 16800 2.183 DET Chase Daniel 7.41700 4000 T.J. Hockenson 11.81716 5100
Danny Amendola 10.03050 3700
38.48250 20100 1.915 DAL Ben DiNucci 7.62900 4800 Amari Cooper 12.74800 5600
CeeDee Lamb 10.47650 4900
21.58175 16900 1.277 IND Jacoby Brissett 1.62300 4400 Trey Burton 9.44950 3500
T.Y. Hilton 8.88625 4600

Stack 3

And finally, our most correlated stack. Often times, we would want to run this back with a receiver on the opposing team, but we’ll deal with that later.

Total Salary Value Team qb_name qb_pts qb_sal receiver_name receiver_pts receiver_sal
107.88212 36500 2.956 LAC Justin Herbert 21.96810 6800 Keenan Allen 18.798487 7000
Mike Williams 12.282000 5100
Hunter Henry 10.897333 4000
110.87200 38400 2.887 BUF Josh Allen 23.42350 7000 Stefon Diggs 18.682250 7400
Cole Beasley 11.969250 5400
John Brown 9.950000 4600
108.06929 38100 2.836 HOU Deshaun Watson 23.43300 7100 Will Fuller 15.105036 6800
Brandin Cooks 13.180750 5500
Randall Cobb 9.484500 4500
114.69762 40500 2.832 SEA Russell Wilson 24.18075 7600 Tyler Lockett 17.791250 6800
DK Metcalf 17.197868 7800
David Moore 7.166250 3100
89.45137 31700 2.822 LV Derek Carr 18.32950 5700 Darren Waller 14.714616 5800
Nelson Agholor 10.175000 4700
Hunter Renfrow 9.573250 4100
110.73144 40700 2.721 ARI Kyler Murray 23.33100 7800 DeAndre Hopkins 20.250688 8200
Christian Kirk 12.499250 5300
Larry Fitzgerald 7.988500 3800
93.47942 34700 2.694 BAL Lamar Jackson 21.21730 6900 Marquise Brown 12.223500 6000
Mark Andrews 12.136021 4800
Miles Boykin 5.468000 3200
81.23306 30300 2.681 NYG Daniel Jones 16.08505 5400 Darius Slayton 12.860000 5000
Evan Engram 10.343415 4300
Sterling Shepard 9.774500 4800
94.52664 35300 2.678 TEN Ryan Tannehill 19.02340 6300 A.J. Brown 15.290000 6600
Corey Davis 11.989250 5900
Jonnu Smith 10.177192 3900
79.80888 29800 DEN Drew Lock 16.13130 5200 Jerry Jeudy 11.873750 4700
Noah Fant 11.144477 4600
Tim Patrick 8.396750 4900
99.33425 37500 2.649 ATL Matt Ryan 19.17900 6400 Julio Jones 18.864503 7200
Calvin Ridley 12.688000 7000
Hayden Hurst 10.244750 4100
114.84169 43400 2.646 KC Patrick Mahomes 23.81650 8100 Tyreek Hill 17.224194 7100
Travis Kelce 16.820000 7200
Mecole Hardman 9.348000 4800
62.93450 24400 2.579 JAX Jake Luton 14.63200 4900 Keelan Cole 8.809750 4000
Chris Conley 6.012000 3000
Tyler Eifert 4.216750 2700
74.77619 29400 2.543 WAS Kyle Allen 14.67730 5300 Terry McLaurin 16.263294 6500
Logan Thomas 8.708000 3700
Dontrelle Inman 5.773000 3300
79.76023 31500 2.532 CAR Teddy Bridgewater 16.97200 6000 Robby Anderson 15.183482 6300
Curtis Samuel 9.264000 4400
Ian Thomas 4.396750 2800
87.24380 34500 2.529 MIN Kirk Cousins 16.82435 6200 Adam Thielen 16.468250 6700
Justin Jefferson 14.885500 6100
Kyle Rudolph 5.417000 3100
91.78320 36400 2.522 PIT Ben Roethlisberger 18.36590 6500 JuJu Smith-Schuster 13.188250 6200
Chase Claypool 12.029000 5700
Diontae Johnson 11.468250 5000
74.13395 30200 2.455 MIA Tua Tagovailoa 14.93200 5500 DeVante Parker 12.637250 5200
Preston Williams 9.047500 4100
Mike Gesicki 7.653204 4400
69.18975 28200 2.454 CHI Nick Foles 14.91725 Anthony Miller 9.387500 4000
Jimmy Graham 7.550500 3800
Darnell Mooney 7.500000 3900
49.95316 24600 2.031 DET Chase Daniel 7.41700 4000 T.J. Hockenson 11.817164 5100
Danny Amendola 10.030500 3700
Marvin Hall 5.854500 3800
54.84575 28900 1.898 DAL Ben DiNucci 7.62900 4800 Amari Cooper 12.748000 5600
CeeDee Lamb 10.476500 4900
Michael Gallup 8.734250 4000
31.45850 25600 1.229 IND Jacoby Brissett 1.62300 4400 Trey Burton 9.449500 3500
T.Y. Hilton 8.886250 4600
Zach Pascal 8.253750 4300

Again, we’ll want to see which of these stacks is the most expensive, so we’ll graph the stacks projected points against their total salary. We’ll look for more value in our stacks, since they’re heavily correlated and are able to outperform their projections.